“Virtuous Minds: Good Thinking Beyond Expertise and Cognitive Abilities”

What constitutes a good thinker? Traditional research in cognitive psychology and judgment and decision-making has primarily focused on cognitive abilities, expertise, and strategies, whereas the role of intellectual virtues is often neglected. However, evidence is mixed on whether higher expertise, intelligence, and cognitive skills reliably enhance metacognition, reduce biases, or improve decision outcomes. My research on overconfidence among experts reveals a nuanced picture: while experts demonstrate enhanced certainty in what they know, they often exhibit increased overconfidence in what they don't know. This lopsided metacognition implies a potential deficit in intellectual humility, a key intellectual virtue in shaping good thinking. Recent work in philosophical ethics increasingly suggests that being a good thinker involves more than superior cognitive abilities or specific strategies; it requires an integration of multiple intellectual virtues. In this talk, I will discuss expert overconfidence and its implications for metacognition and present my ongoing research into intellectual profiles for being a good thinker and their influence on judgment and behavior.